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Ovcharov A.O. Economic security of the tourism industry: posing a question and the system of indicators

Published in journal "National Security / nota bene", 2015-1 in rubric "Economical support of national security", pages 108-115.

Resume: The subject of the research is the aspects of determining the threats to economic security in the area of tourism. The author attempts to develop a way to assess the threats to economic security of the tourism industry at the macro and micro levels. Macroeconomic level is represented by a system of indicators, which have a high elasticity in relation to the macroeconomic situation in the tourism sector and are interrelated. Special attention is given to the calculation of indicators of economic security of the tourism industry of Russia and their threshold values. For the analysis of microeconomic indicators the author proposes an approach based on the definition of the list of threats to the personal security and possible ways of evaluating them. As a result, the author has developed a system of indicators of tourism security based not on the statistics, but on the expert assessments of the nature and scope of threats to a safe recreation.
The article demonstrates that the multiplier effect of tourism is associated not only with a number of economic and socio-cultural benefits, but with an entire system of threats and dangers arising from external and internal negative factors. The article also presents the mechanism of the multiplier of the tourism industry threats, as well as the system of indicators of economic security of tourism, which includes 9 macroeconomic indicators. The author shows how to calculate these indicators and identifies the critical values, and makes a conclusion about unstable operation of the tourism sector of the economy of Russia based on the carried out calculation. In modern terms this problem poses a threat to national security. The special contribution of the author in the study is that a list of threats for individual tourist trips is presented. It is proved that in contrast to macroeconomic indicators of economic security of micro-level indicators should be formed on the basis of the opinion polls. The author proposes a system of indicators consisting of three blocks: organizational and economic, political and socio-cultural, and natural threats to the safety of tourist trips.

Keywords: devaluation, crises, threats, multiplicative effect, tourist industry, economic security, system of indicators, thresholds, statistical analysis, tourist trips

DOI: 10.7256/2073-8560.2015.1.14261

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