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Changes of hydrothermal climate resources of the Arctic in the context of global warming of the 21st century
Abstract.The author studies the change of climate resources of the Arctic in the context of global warming, forecast in the 21st century. The authors pay special attention to the values of climate resources, calculated on the base of temperature and precipitation values. The article studies daily points of extremum of surface air temperature, yearly amounts of air temperatures in different ranges and the longevity of periods with such temperatures, fuel performance index, amount and type of precipitations at different air temperatures, and the number of days with such precipitations. Climate resources are calculated on the base of a climate forecast of a group of climate models of the CMIP5 project for the RCP8.5. scenario. To estimate climate resources, the authors use daily model data about air temperature and precipitation total for the period of 1950-2100. in latitudinal zone of 60-90 degrees of north latitude. The authors of the present study are the first to acquire the results of a complex forecast of climate resources of the Arctic. The study shows that, in the context of global warming, the spatial heterogeneity of the forecast anomalies of climate resources is well-defined. The most vivid changes of hydrothermal climate resources by the end of the 21st century are expected above the Northern Atlantic, the seas of Western Europe, the Barents and the Chukchi seas. The least significant changes are expected above Greenland.
Keywords: precipitation, temperature, global warming, climate models, climate forecast, the Arctic, climate resources, regional analysis, indexes, daily points of extremum
Article was received:14-03-2017
This article written in Russian. You can find full text of article in Russian here .