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Computer technology of pilot functional reliability prognostic evaluation
Guzii Anatolii Grigor'evich

Doctor of Technical Science

Deputy Director for Flight Safety Management, UTair Aviation

127083, Russia, Moscow, Petrovsko-Razumovskaya alley, 12 A

gniiivm-g@ya.ru
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Kukushkin Yurii Aleksandrovich

Doctor of Technical Science

Leading Scientific Associate Central Scientific Research Institute of Air Force of the Ministry of Defense of Russia

127183, Russia, Moskovskaya oblast', g. Moscow, Petrovsko-Razumovskaya alleya, 12, of. A

prof.Kukushkin@yandex.ru
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Lushkin Aleksandr Mikhailovich

PhD in Technical Science

 
Deputy Director General for Safety Management of UTair Aviation

125367, Russia, Moscow, Volokolamskoe Shosse, 41, apt. 71

gniiivm-m@yandex.ru
Другие публикации этого автора
 

 

Abstract.

The subject of research is mathematical software prognostic evaluation of functional reliability of the pilot. The object of research is the functional reliability of the professional activities of the pilot. The authors consider in detail such aspects of the topic as automated assessment of the risk of an aviation event due to the release of flight parameters for operational limitations, understanding by the risk assessment the probabilistic measure of the occurrence of an aviation event of a fixed degree of severity due to exceeding operational limitations of the aircraft, in flight such an event (depending on the severity effects) is classified as an aviation event, subject to the investigation. The research methodology is based on the system approach and unites methods of probability theory, mathematical statistics, aviation cybernetics, psychophysiology of flight work. The main result of the study is a software-implemented technology for predicting the functional reliability of the pilot, implemented, allowing to implement an individual a priori risk assessment of an aviation event (incident) for a group of causative factors "crew" in the most critical stages of flight (takeoff and landing) Accumulated statistics of aviation events caused by the release of flight parameters for operational limitations, which is important To ensure proactive management of safety levels in the airline. The novelty of the research is that the technology of predictive estimation of the functional reliability of the pilot is developed on the basis of the concept of acceptable risk of an accident.

Keywords: aviation risk management, flight safety, aeronautical cybernetics, pilot condition monitoring, pilot reliability monitoring, pilot reliability prediction, reliability of the pilot, predictive assessments, psychophysiology of flight work, probabilistic modeling

DOI:

10.7256/2454-0714.2018.2.22425

Article was received:

24-03-2017


Review date:

28-03-2017


Publish date:

13-06-2018


This article written in Russian. You can find full text of article in Russian here .

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