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Development of the methodology of assessment of the economic growth of the regional economic systems on the basis of unified system of factors (on the example of the Volga Federal District)
Elshin Leonid Alekseevich

PhD in Economics

senior researcher at Center for Strategic Assessment and Forecasts of the Institute of Management, Economics and Finance, Kazan Federal University

420139, Russia, respublika Tatarstan, g. Kazan', ul. Ostrovskogo, 23/1

Leonid.Elshin@tatar.ru

 

 
Safiullin Marat Rashitovich

Doctor of Economics

Prorector on the Questions of Economic and Strategic Planning, Kazan Federal University

420111, Russia, respublika Tatarstan, g. Kazan', ul. Ostrovskogo, 23

Marat.Safiullin@tatar.ru
Abdukaeva Aliya Aidarovna

Leading Scientific Associate, Center of Advanced Economic Research of the Republic of Tatarstan Academy of Sciences

420111, Russia, respublika Tatarstan, g. Kazan', ul. Ostrovskogo, 23

Aliya.Abdukaeva@tatar.ru

Abstract.

Development of the forecasting models of economic growth, their improvement and adaptation to the transforming conditions of the institutional factors, require constant refinement of the methodological instruments. The key task here is the search for such system of factors that would simultaneously clarify the correction in the trends of economic dynamics and be unified for the entirety of the regional systems, which creates possibility for comparative analysis of the drivers of the economic growth. The object of this research is the unified factors of the economic growth of the Volga Federal District. The subject of this research is the modeling system of the parameters of economic dynamics on the basis of identification of exogenous factors unified for all regional systems. As a result of the conducted assessments, based on the instruments of econometric modeling, the authors determine the models of economic growth of the Volga Federal District based on uniformity of factors, which allowed, using the methods of cluster analysis, grouping them in accordance with the level of response and sensitivity to the changing parameters of the analyzed macro-indicators.

Keywords: scenario forecasting, modelling, component analysis, cluster analysis, factors of economic growth, regional system, economic dynamics, Volga Federal District, econometric analysis, system of the regression equations

DOI:

10.25136/2409-8647.2018.2.25892

Article was received:

05-04-2018


Review date:

06-04-2018


Publish date:

04-07-2018


This article written in Russian. You can find full text of article in Russian here .

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