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Development of the methodology of assessment of the economic growth of the regional economic systems on the basis of unified system of factors (on the example of the Volga Federal District)
Abstract.Development of the forecasting models of economic growth, their improvement and adaptation to the transforming conditions of the institutional factors, require constant refinement of the methodological instruments. The key task here is the search for such system of factors that would simultaneously clarify the correction in the trends of economic dynamics and be unified for the entirety of the regional systems, which creates possibility for comparative analysis of the drivers of the economic growth. The object of this research is the unified factors of the economic growth of the Volga Federal District. The subject of this research is the modeling system of the parameters of economic dynamics on the basis of identification of exogenous factors unified for all regional systems. As a result of the conducted assessments, based on the instruments of econometric modeling, the authors determine the models of economic growth of the Volga Federal District based on uniformity of factors, which allowed, using the methods of cluster analysis, grouping them in accordance with the level of response and sensitivity to the changing parameters of the analyzed macro-indicators.
Keywords: scenario forecasting, modelling, component analysis, cluster analysis, factors of economic growth, regional system, economic dynamics, Volga Federal District, econometric analysis, system of the regression equations
Article was received:05-04-2018
This article written in Russian. You can find full text of article in Russian here .