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The Fourth Industrial Revolution in the Russian Federation: assessment of prospects based on structuring long-term cycles of cutting-edge development
Abstract.The subject of this research is the mechanisms of structuring long-term economic cycles of cutting-edge development that form representation and forecasting assessment regarding the prospects and horizons of phase shifts of the ecosystem in the future. The object of this research is the evolution of the national economy in the context of modelling long-term economic cycles. Using modeling mechanism of long-term prospects of economic agents for the period of 1962-2000, the authors determine the trajectories of the phase shifts in the national economic system. This allowed not only identifying the character of cyclic development of national economy within the examined timeframe, but also scientifically substantiating the prospects and parameters of the arrival of the so-called Fourth Industrial Revolution in the Russian Federation. It is proved that based on the developed methodology of structuring cycles of cutting-edge development and its trial on the system of statistical data of national economy over the recent 60 years, that the socioeconomic crisis of the 1990’s was caused not only by the institutional transformations, but also the fact that during this period the long-term economic cycle entered the decline phase, which transformed on the brink of the end of 2000’s and beginning of 2010’s into the inclination phase, allowing substantiation of the conclusion that the phase of long-term growth in Russian economy will not arrive before 2020-2025.
Keywords: cycles of the advancing development, phase shifts, national economy, technological ways, the fourth industrial revolution, long-term business cycles, expectations of economic agents, forecasting, modeling, the cross-correlation analysis
Article was received:20-04-2018
This article written in Russian. You can find full text of article in Russian here .