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The Analytical Background Report of the US Intelligence Community on the Situation in the USSR at the Final Stage of its Existence (1989-1991)
Abstract.The author gives a detailed analysis of the changes in assessment of the USSR by the Intelligence community of the United States during the period from 1989 until 1991 on the basis of documents from the archives of the CIA and the National security archive (USA). The main goal is to analyze the information and analytical reports of the U.S. Intelligence community to expand the understanding of how the ideas about the USSR changed in the Intelligence community in the period from 1989 to 1991. The object of study is the analytical work of the iIntelligence community of the United States and the subject is the analysts' assessment of the situation in the USSR in 1989 - 1991. The author pays particular attention to consideration of possible scenarios, as well as to differences in approaches to forecasting the situation in the Intelligence community. The novelty of the study lies in the involved sources which were introduced to scientific circulation for the first time and in the emphasis of the study on the assessment of the situation in the USSR by the Intelligence community. The author concludes that the information contained in the analytical reports differs significantly depending on the Department wherein they were made, and on the time of writing. The analysts' conclusions were not confirmed by the historical process, and the myth of the US Intelligence services' omniscience and their role in the collapse of the USSR is under considerable doubt.
Keywords: U.S. – Soviet relations, analytical work, CIA, U. S. Intelligence Community, B. N. Yeltsin, M. S. Gorbachev, G. H. W. Bush, Cold War, Collapse of the USSR, Republics of the USSR
Article was received:10-05-2018
This article written in Russian. You can find full text of article in Russian here .