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Network Structures for the Integration and Disintegration of Political Actors (on the Example of EU Countries)
Abstract.Insufficient economic growth rates, security problems, the expected exit of the UK from the EU prompt further research into the analysis of the processes of integration and disintegration of supra- and interstate entities. The paper presents a security model of the state, consisting of two components - development functions and conservation functions. The development function in the form of a three-factor power production function takes into account the population size of the country, its area, urbanization, gross domestic product per capita and natural population growth. The conservation function operates with variables such as: the share of the state-forming ethnos from the population of the country, the parameters of attraction and ethnic heterogeneity. The verification of the security model was carried out using the example of the EU countries. A model for the security of supra- and interstate political entities (unions) is developed, taking into account the degree of integration between individual countries (the share of state functions transferred to the Union). For the EU countries, an assessment of the heterogeneity parameter relative to the allied country, Germany, has been carried out. Shumov analyzes the network structure model that includes the geographic graph (combination of axes (states) and ridges (boundaries between states)) and sociopolitical graph (arcs are interpeted as the presence of sociopolitical connections). The author offers his definition of admissible coalitions and explains the rule of formation of socio-political network structures: political actors select coalition with the maximum security function. Shumov provides examples of formation of optimal coalitions. Using the network structure model, the author carries out an analysis of the processes of integration and disintegration in the European Union. As the European Union integration develops, disintegratoin processes are expected to reinforce in multinational states, or the states will have to leave the Union.
Keywords: selection rule, coalition, socio-political graph, ethnic heterogeneity parameter, conservation function, development function, security model, integration, disintegration, national security
Article was received:16-05-2018
This article written in Russian. You can find full text of article in Russian here .