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Research of the interconnection of the exchange rate of Russian ruble and macroeconomic indexes of the country
Abstract.As of today, the exchange rate of Russian ruble is considered floating; in other words, it is affected by the market factors that are beyond control of the monetary authorities. This situation threatens the economic security of Russia, thus the development of national economy for elimination of risks association with the fluctuations of ruble’s value is especially pertinent. The object of this research is the exchange rate of the Russian ruble, while the subject is its interconnection with the indexes of national economy. The goal of this work consists in analysis of the impact of macroeconomic indexes of the Russian Federation upon the dynamics of the exchange rate of the Russian ruble. The relevance of this work lies in the fact that the study of the macroeconomic indexes of the Russian Federation and value of the ruble will allow determining the strongest and weakest facets within the economy for coordination of economic policy in the context of national security. The article explores the factors affecting the dynamics of national currency, including econometric analysis of the strength of connection between the indexes of economic development of the Russian Federation and the value of Russian ruble. The work presents the economic interpretation of the interdependence of the exchange rate and the macroeconomic indexes. The authors come to a conclusion on the factor exerting the most influence upon the exchange rate and construct a model for determining the impact of the global oil prices upon the exchange rate.
Keywords: refinancing rate, currency policy, oil price, economic indicators, national economy, exchange rate, Russia, russian ruble, econometric model, short-range forecast
Article was received:05-07-2018
This article written in Russian. You can find full text of article in Russian here .