Eng During last 365 days Approved articles: 2075,   Articles in work: 296 Declined articles: 803 

Back to contents

Security Issues

The Cassandra Effect in the Process of Fast Decision Making: Logical Semantic Interpretation
Emel'yanov Andrei Sergeevich

PhD in Philosophy

Lecturer of the Department of Philosophy at Kursk State University

305000, Russia, Kurskaya oblast', g. Kursk, ul. Radishcheva, 33, of. 325



The academic literature describes the process of making fast decisions in situations of uncertainty as alogical and with irrational mechanisms of decision making. The same tendency can be discovered in works by D. Kanemman, A. Tversky and R. Tyler. However, today the question about the influence of the logical form of language (disinformation, logical probability or logical contradiction) on the decision making process has not been answered. The aim of this research is to discover the relationship between semantic disinformation and making fast or slow decisions. The authors have conducted two experiments for this purpose. In the first experiment they analyzed the influence of the volume of semantic disinformation on the process of fast decision making. In the second experiment they analyzed the influence of semantic disinformation on the process of slow decision making. In his research Emelyanov has used the methods of statistical processing of data (unilateral variance analysis, correlation and regression analysis) as well as logical semantic analysis of the informational content. The following hypotheses have been made and proved in the course of this research: 1) there is a negative correlation between logical competence and mechanisms of classical rationality in the process of fast decision making; 2) there is a positive correlation between the time of decision and the level of logical competence of respondents in the course of the slow decision making. The results of the research demonstrate the heuristic and behavioral mechanisms of two types of decisions in situations of uncertainty as well as help develop tools for processing the semantic informational content. 

Keywords: metacognition, logic competence, rationality, semantic disinformation, semantic information, logical probality, slow decision making, Fast decision making, framing Effect, Cassandra Effect



Article was received:


Review date:


Publish date:


This article written in Russian. You can find full text of article in Russian here .

Vishnyakov V.A. (2014). Sostoyanie, tendentsii i kontseptsiya razvitiya intellektual'nykh tekhnologii v zashchite informatsii. Open Semantic Technologies for Intelligent Systems, 391‒394.
Zerkal' O.V. (2014). Semanticheskaya informatsiya i podkhody k ee otsenke. Filosofiya nauki, 1 (60), 53‒69.
Kokoshin A. A. (2014). Metodologicheskie problemy prognozirovaniya v interesakh natsional'noi bezopasnosti Rossii. M.: Institut vostokovedeniya RAN, 2014. s. 98.
Kolmogorov A.N. (1957). Teoriya peredachi informatsii // Sessiya Akademii nauk SSSR po nauchnym problemam avtomatizatsii proizvodstva, 1520 okt.1956 g.: Plenar. zasedaniya. M.: Izd-vo AN SSSR, 6699.
Kornilova T.V. (2016a). Intellektual'no-lichnostnyi potentsial cheloveka v usloviyakh neopredelennosti i riska. SPb.: Nestor-Istoriya.
Kornilova T.V. (2016b). Psikhologiya vybora kak myslitel'noe i lichnostnoe oposredovanie preodoleniya neopredelennosti. Psikhologicheskii zhurnal, 37 (3), 113‒124.
Krasnov E.V. (2017) Lichnostnye svoistva i intellekt kak prediktory prinyatiya reshenii v igrovykh strategiyakh Aiova-testa (na vyborke voennykh rukovoditelei). Eksperimental'naya psikhologiya 10 (2), 5466. doi:10.17759/exppsy.2017100205.
Nikiforov A. (2009). Uslovnye kontrfakticheskie vyskazyvaniya. Logos, 2 (70), 84‒95.
Pogorelov O.A. (2013). Nabrosok teorii semanticheskoi informatsii i dezinformatsii. Vsnik Skhdno-ukrans'kogo nats. un-tu m. V. Dalya, 1(190), 281285.
Spiridonov V.F., (2016). Protivorechie v strukture reprezentatsii zadachi kak uslovie vozniknoveniya insaita / Spiridonov V.F., Loginov N.I., Mukhutdinova A.O. // Psikhologicheskii zhurnal, 2016, 37 (1).
Filyaeva O.V., Vladimirov I.Yu., (2017). Emotsional'nyi samootchet kak indikator progressa v reshenii insaitnykh zadach, Vserossiiskaya konferentsiya po kognitivnoi nauke KISE-2017: materialy Vserossiiskoi konferentsii (Kazan', 30 oktyabrya 3 noyabrya 2017 g.). Kazan': Izd-vo Kazanskogo un-ta, 2017, 542545.
Adriaans P. (2019). A critical analysis of Floridis theory of semantic information. Knowledge, Technology and Policy, 1‒2 (23), 4156.
Aisbett J., Gibbon G. (1999). A practical measure of the information in a logical theory. Journal of Experimental and Theoretical Artificial Intelligence, 2 (11), 201218.
Bar-Hillel Y., Carnap R. (1953). Semantic information. The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science, 4(4). P. 151.
Burkett Randy P. (2016). Studies in Intelligence, Vol 60, No. 3 (Extracts, September 2016).
Carnap R., Bar-Hillel Y. (1952). An outline of theory of semantic information. Techn. Report of Res. Lab. Electr.
Damasio, A. R., Everitt, B. J., & Bishop, D. (1996). The somatic marker hypothesis and the possible functions of the prefrontal cortex [and discussion]. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 351 (1346), 14131420. doi:10.1098/rstb.1996.0125.
Eberhardt W., de Bruin W. B., & Stroogh J. (2018). Age differences in financial decision making: the benefits of more experience and less negative emotions. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making.
Emelyanov A.S. (2018). Theory of Decision-making: the logical-mathematical aspects. International Journals of Advanced Studies, Vol. 8. No 2, 2239. doi: 10.12731/2227-930X-2018-2-22-39.
Emelyanov A.S. (2015). Logical-mathematical analytics the existential nature of Decision-making. International Journals of Advanced Studies, Vol. 5. No 4.
Ert, E., Erev I. (2007). Replicated alternatives and the role of confusion, chasing, and regred in decisions from experience. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 20, 305‒322. doi: 10.1002/bdm.556.
Evans, J. St. B. T. (2003). In two minds: Dual process accounts of reasoning. Trends in Cognitive Sciences, 7, 454459.
Evans, J. St. B. T. (2004). Dual processes, evolution and rationality. Thinking and Reasoning, 10, 405410.
Floridi L. (2005). Is information meaningful data? Philosophy and Phenomenological Research, 2(70), 352, 353.
Floridi L. (2004). Open problems in the philosophy of information. Metaphilosophy, 4(35), 554582.
Floridi L., (2004). Outline of a theory of strongly semantic information. Minds and Machines, 2(14), 197222.
Floridi L., (2009). Philosophical conceptions of information. Formal Theories of Information / Ed. by G. Sommaruga. B.: Springer, 16.
Grosskopf, B., Erev, I., & Yechiam, E. (2006). Forgone with the wind: Indirect payoff information and its implications for choice. International Journal of Game Theory, 34, 285302.
Gu, X., Mulder, J., Dekovic, M., & Hoijtink, H. (2014). Bayesian evaluation of inequality constrained hypotheses. Psychological Methods, 19(4), 511‒527. doi:10.1037/met0000017.
Gu, X., Mulder, J., & Hoijtink, H. (2015). Error probabilities in default Bayesian hypothesis testing. Journal of Mathematical Psychology. doi:10.1016/j.jmp.2015.09.001.
Hellriegel, D., Slocum, J.W., & Woodman, R.W. (1998). Organizational behavior (8th ed.). SouthWestern: Cincinnati, Ohio, USA.
Hoijtink, H. (2012). Informative hypotheses: Theory and practice for behavioural and social scientists. Boca Raton, FL: Chapman and Hall/CRC.
Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1996). On the reality of cognitive illusions. Psychological Review, 103, 582591.
Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (Eds.). (2000). Choices, values and frames. New York, USA: Cambridge University Press.
Kornilova T.V., Kerimova S. G. (2018). Specifics of Personal Prerequisites of Decision-Making Process (Based on the Framing Effect) in Doctors and Teachers Sample Groups. Psychology. Journal of the Higher School of Economics, 1 (15), 2238.
Keysar B., Hayakawa Sayuri L., & An. S.G. (2012). The Foreign-Language Effect: Thinking in a Foreign Tongue Reduces Decision Biases. Psychological Science XX(X), 18.
Knoblich, G., Ohlsson, S., & Raney, G. E. (2001). An eye movement study of insight problem solving. Memory & cognition, 29(7), 10001009.
Kruger, J. Dunning, D. (1999). Unskilled and Unaware of It: How Difficulties in Recognizing One's Own Incompetence Lead to Inflated Self-Assessments. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 77 (6): 112134. doi:10.1037/0022-3514.77.6.1121.
Kugler T., Rapoport A., & Pazy A. (2017). Public good provision in inter-team conflicts: effects of asymmetry and profit sharing rule. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 23, 421‒438. doi: 10.1002/bdm.667.
Löckenhoff, C. E. (2011). Age, time, and decision making: From processing speed to global time horizons. Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences. 1235: 4456. doi:10.1111/j.1749-6632.2011.06209.x.
Mandel D.R., Barnes A. Geopolitical forecasting skill in strategic intelligence. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 1 (31), 127137. doi: 10/1002/bdm. 2055.
Michalalkiewicz M., Arden K., & Erdfelder E. (2018). Do smarter people employ better decision strategies? The influence of intelligence on adaptive use of the recognition heuristic. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 31, 3‒11. doi: 10.100d/kdm.2040.
Milo J., Silberzahn P. (2013). Constructing Cassandra, Reframing Intelligence Failure at the CIA, 1947‒2001. Stanford University Press. 375 p.
Psychology of Intelligence Analysis. by Richard J. Heuer, Jr. Center of the study of intelligence. Central Intelligence Agency, 1999.
Randolph H. Pherson and Richards J. Heuer Jr., as well as Roger Z. George, (2004). Fixing the Problem of Analytical Mind-sets: Alternative Analysis, International Journal of Intelligence and Counterintelligence 3(17), 385404.
Shannon C.E. (1948) A mathematical theory of communication. Bell System Technical Journal, 27(3), 379423.
Thaler, R., Tversky, A., Kahneman, D., & Schwartz, A. (1997). The effect of myopia and loss aversion on risk taking: An experimental test. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 112, 647661.
Thomas, A. K., Millar, P. R. (2012). Reducing the framing effect in older and younger adults by encouraging analytic processing. The Journals of Gerontology, 2, 13949.
Toplak M.E., Liu E., Macpherson R., Toneatto T., & Stanovich K. E. (2007). The reasoning skills and thinking dispositions of problem gamblers: a dual-process taxonomy. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 20, 103‒124. doi: 10.1002/bdm.544.
Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1983). Extensional versus intuitive reasoning: The conjunction fallacy in probability judgment. Psychological Review, 90, 293315.
Yechiam, E., Stout, J. C., Busemeyer, J. R., Rock, S. L., & Finn, P. R., (2005b). Individual differences in the response to forgone payoffs: An examination of high functioning drug abusers. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 18, 97110.
Watanabe, S.; Shibutani, H. (2010). Aging and decision making: Differences in susceptibility to the risky-choice framing effect between older and younger adults in Japan. Japanese Psychological Research. 52 (3): 163. doi:10.1111/j.1468-5884.2010.00432.x.
West, R. F., & Stanovich, K. E. (2003). Is probability matching smart? Associations between probabilistic choices and cognitive ability. Memory & Cognition, 31, 243251.
Wohlstetter R. (1962). Pearl Harbor: Warning and Decision Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press. pp. 392, 397, pp. 354-355.
Sait Ministerstva oborony Rossiiskoi Federatsii. Rassledovanie komissii generala Pokrovskogo // [Elektronnyi resurs]:URL:http://june22.mil.ru/mil.ru/ files/ files/programs/barbarossa-1.jpg (Data obrashcheniya: 24.06. 2018).