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The method of fuzzy autoregression as an instrument of sociological forecasting of incidence rate of diabetes, blood circulatory system diseases and oncology in Russia during the XXI century
Abstract.The subject of this research is modelling of a number of demographic parameters using the method of fuzzy autoregression as a tool of sociological studies. The object of this research is the dynamics of incidence rate of diabetes, blood circulatory system diseases and malignant tumors over the recent 15-25 years. This work determines the parameters of mathematical models or time sequences of the number of newly registered cases of diverse nosology. The conclusion is made on the need for development of targeted healthcare programs at the federal and regional levels. The main instrument of analysis is the structuring of forecasting mathematical models of changes in the incidence rate of diseases using the method of fuzzy autoregression and algorithm of MatLab system language. The methods of fuzzy nonlinear regression and autoregression have been applied in technical and natural sciences for over 40 years. In the area of social sciences, similar methods have not been used until recently, therefore their application in forecasting of demographic parameters, including the distribution of diseases is innovative.
Keywords: health care forecasting, incidence rates, sociological modeling, mathematical model, linear programming, fuzzy autoregression, fuzzy time series, time series, fuzzy number, incidence factors
Article was received:29-12-2018
This article written in Russian. You can find full text of article in Russian here .